The bitcoin price today stood at about $77,420 around 11:40 UTC on Friday 30 October, down 3.39% over 24 hours, after Deribit’s October options expiry settled at $78,119.01 at 08:00 UTC, according to the exchange’s delivery-price feed. That is $119, or 0.15%, above the $78,000 max pain level CryptoTicker had published on Thursday. Bitcoin has since slipped about $700 below the settlement, with the Nikkei 225 down 2.5% and AI spending hitting chip stocks across Asia.
Our early-morning report left the expiry and Thursday’s ETF flows open. The expiry has passed and the ETF figure came in small, while Eurostat’s growth estimate slowed to 0.4%. The damage from the Binance hack, which has its own report, is still in prices.
Bitcoin options expiry settled $119 above max pain
Deribit’s delivery price for the 30 October expiry was $78,119.01, against $79,779.23 for the 29 October daily expiry and $80,868.02 for 28 October. Those three prints, read from the exchange’s public API at about 11:54 UTC, give the fall in one line: $2,749 in two days, measured at the same hour. CryptoTicker says the delivery price is the average of the index over the last 30 minutes before 08:00 UTC.
Max pain is the strike at which option buyers as a group collect the least at expiry. It is arithmetic based on open positions, not a forecast. The expiry landing so close to it looks tidy, but the night’s forced selling had taken bitcoin below that level hours before the settlement window opened.
The size of the expiry depends on who counted and when. CryptoTicker’s Thursday afternoon report, with bitcoin at $81,179, gave 135,159 BTC of options worth about $11 billion: 88,715 calls and 46,445 puts, a put/call ratio of 0.52. KuCoin’s flash report had $10.92 billion and a ratio of 0.53, while a CryptoTicker preview on 27 October had 135,545 contracts and $10.8 billion. The counts moved as open interest changed.
| Strike | Contracts on 29 Oct (CryptoTicker) | Position at $78,119.01 |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | 11,285 | Above settlement |
| $95,000 | 20,152, of which 19,951 calls | Above settlement |
| $90,000 | 10,756 | Above settlement |
| $85,000 zone | 4,326 | Above settlement |
| $80,000 | 2,972 | Above settlement |
| $69,000 to $75,000 | 17,592 puts | Below settlement |
Read against the settlement, the largest pile of open interest finished far from the money: the $95,000 calls were about $16,900 out. On Thursday’s count, any call struck at $80,000 or higher expired worthless at $78,119.01, and so did the 17,592 puts. CryptoTicker counted 116,265 contracts, or 86%, as headed for zero at Thursday’s $81,179. That count is out of date, because a settlement about $3,060 lower changes which strikes pay.
Bitcoin ETF flows: only $17.1 million on Thursday
The daily table kept by tftc.io, a secondary source, shows US spot bitcoin ETFs took in a net $17.1 million on 29 October, the smallest of the four sessions so far this week. IBIT added $12.8 million, FBTC $10.5 million, BITB $8.8 million and MSBT $4.2 million, while BTCW lost $3.8 million and Grayscale’s mini bitcoin fund lost $15.3 million.
| Session (2026) | Net flow, US spot bitcoin ETFs |
|---|---|
| Monday 26 Oct | +$110.3 million |
| Tuesday 27 Oct | +$176.0 million |
| Wednesday 28 Oct | +$137.3 million |
| Thursday 29 Oct | +$17.1 million |
| Four days (our sum) | +$440.7 million |
The first three days match the +$423.66 million that news.bitcoin.com reported for Monday to Wednesday, which gives the table some support. That outlet put total net assets at $104.88 billion and Wednesday’s traded value at $1.26 billion. US spot ether ETFs went the other way over the same three days, losing $170.21 million.
Timing matters here. US stock trading normally ends at 20:00 UTC at this time of year, and TRM Labs dates the start of the Binance withdrawals to 20:05 UTC. So the $17.1 million most likely does not show how fund buyers reacted to the hack. It shows thin demand in a session when Alphabet fell 13%. The first flow number that can capture a reaction is Friday’s, which will appear after the US close.
Bitcoin price today meets Glassnode’s wall: $81,500, then $85,000
A rebound would run into two groups of holders. Cointribune, summarising Glassnode, says about 4 million BTC, close to 20% of supply and worth about $325 billion, has been held for at least 155 days at an estimated cost between $85,000 and $118,000. A move toward $85,000 could lead some of those holders to sell and get their money back. Bitcoin would need to rise about 9.8% from its price around 11:40 UTC to get there.
Glassnode does not forecast a mass exit, according to the same article. It expects gradual selling that the market can take. The history is still thin on the bulls’ side: bitcoin has closed above $85,000 on only five days since January, and no run above that level has lasted more than three sessions.
The nearer levels sit much closer. Cointribune gives the average cost of US spot ETF holders at about $81,500, so around 11:40 UTC the average ETF buyer was roughly 5% under water. Active investors sit near $77,900, just above the price, and short-term holders near $75,800, below it. Bids on Binance’s order book were far thinner at $80,000, about $3.4 million, than between $78,000 and $79,000, about $42 million. Net realized losses on pullbacks had shrunk from about $630 million in August to about $27 million around 24 October.
The $325 billion value implies a price near $81,000, so these numbers most likely predate the night’s fall. The order-book figures in particular may have changed.
Nikkei down 2.5% as AI spending hits Asian chip stocks
The other pressure on risk assets came from equities. Coinacademy, in a report updated at 11:15 UTC, put the Nikkei 225 down 2.5%, with the selling concentrated in companies tied to AI spending. The US session on Thursday came first: Alphabet lost 13%, a record of about $500 billion in value, after a second quarter of cash burn, and the Nasdaq Composite closed 1.4% lower. Intel then fell 22% after hours, and Cointelegraph had it 26% lower before Friday’s open, after guiding fourth-quarter sales to $15 billion to $16 billion against the $17 billion to $18 billion expected.
| Stock or index | Move |
|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | -2.5% |
| SoftBank (48% below its June peak) | -6.3% |
| Fujitsu (after Q2 results) | -16.2% |
| Kioxia | -7.5% |
| SK Hynix | -7.2% |
| Samsung Electronics | -5.1% |
| TSMC | -1.9% |
| Nasdaq 100 futures, before the US session | -2.1% |
| S&P 500 futures, before the US session | -1% |
The common thread, in a Financial Times framing relayed by Coinacademy, is profitable companies spending their free cash flow on AI capital expenditure and raising outside money on top. Among the Magnificent Seven, only Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia are still up for the year. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla are negative.
Bitcoin was not falling with them in the late morning: its one-hour change around 11:40 UTC was +0.12%.
Euro-area GDP rose 0.4%, flash inflation follows on 4 November
Eurostat’s flash estimate published today shows euro-area GDP up 0.4% in the third quarter from the second, slower than the 0.6% of the previous quarter, and up 1.3% on a year earlier, against 1.2%. The whole EU grew 0.5%. Ireland stood out at +5.5%, a figure Eurostat treats as experimental, while France shrank 0.1% and Lithuania 1.0%. Unemployment in the euro area held at 6.5% in September, the same as August, and at 6.2% in the EU.
October’s flash inflation estimate from Eurostat is scheduled for Wednesday 4 November. The latest reading is September’s 3.8%, released on 16 October and up from 3.2% in August, and the new figure will be the first since the ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% on Thursday.
In the US there is no PCE release today. The Bureau of Economic Analysis schedule shows nothing on 30 October, and its next entry is 4 November. The September figures came out on Thursday: KuCoin’s daily report gives core PCE at 3.1% year on year, third-quarter GDP at 3.4% annualized and jobless claims at 194,000. The October PCE is due on 25 November at 8:30 ET.
The one US number left today is the employment cost index for the third quarter, due at 12:30 UTC from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was still due when this report was finished.
HYPE keeps its gains while BNB and DeFi tokens fall
| Asset | Price, around 11:40 UTC | 1 h | 24 h | 7 d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $77,420 | +0.12% | -3.39% | -4.79% |
| Hyperliquid (HYPE) | $92.41 | +1.89% | +5.70% | +19.34% |
| THORChain (RUNE) | $0.6525 | +0.17% | +6.96% | +3.53% |
| TRON (TRX) | $0.3408 | +2.19% | +2.88% | +3.71% |
| Zcash (ZEC) | $1,249 | +1.47% | -1.68% | +4.19% |
| Monero (XMR) | $591 | +0.16% | -1.52% | -2.85% |
| BNB | $699.7 | 0.00% | -5.37% | -5.87% |
Coindaro’s market data shows how uneven the morning has been. HYPE was up 5.70% over 24 hours around 11:40 UTC, against the +16.51% CoinCodex recorded at 06:00 UTC, when it had passed Zcash for seventh place by market cap. The driver remains ICE’s backing of trade[XYZ] for US perpetuals. RUNE gained 6.96%. KuCoin ties TRX’s rise to options on Blockchain.com and further buying by Tron Inc.
ZEC and XMR each lost less than 2% on the day, and only ZEC shows a gain over seven days. On the losing side, BNB was at $699.7, while AAVE, at $125.4, lost 5.91% on the day and 14.99% on the week, and CRV, at $0.286, lost 12.52% and 20.59%. PYTH fell 13.59%, ZAMA 13.53% and TIA 12.59%. BEAM and IRYS rose more than 38% each.
Total crypto capitalisation was $2.61 trillion around 11:40 UTC, with dominance for bitcoin at 59.8%, volume at $176.8 billion and the Fear and Greed index at 30.
The night’s low and the liquidation totals depend on the source. The low is $76,320 on TradingView via Cointelegraph and $76,418 on a CryptoTicker ticker at 02:07 UTC, while The Block had bitcoin at $76,664 at 02:00 UTC. Cointelegraph, citing CoinGlass, counts $1.56 billion over 24 hours with $1.31 billion of longs, while The Block’s 02:00 UTC count was $1.55 billion with $1.34 billion of longs: the windows differ. Cointelegraph’s chart reading shows a daily RSI of 34.7, the lowest since 30 June, and a Thursday close under the lower Bollinger band, a first since 25 June. It also notes a bullish divergence on the 4-hour RSI, and the 20-day average at $81,324 sits almost on top of the ETF cost level.
Dates to watch after the expiry
- Friday 30 October, 12:30 UTC: US employment cost index for the third quarter.
- After the US close on Friday: the first ETF flow figure that covers trading after the hack.
- Saturday 31 October: FLOCK token unlock, about 41% of circulating supply or about $18.4 million, per KuCoin.
- Sunday 1 November: OPEC+ meeting, plus SUI and EIGEN unlocks, per KuCoin.
- Wednesday 4 November: Eurostat’s October flash inflation estimate.
- 25 November, 8:30 ET: US PCE for October.